Effects of Depredation & Mexican Gray Wolf Presence on Ranch Returns: Case Study of a Representative Ranch in Arizona

In this study, we use a representative ranch model to simulate the effects of wolf presence on short-term ranch returns for a representative Arizona ranch under a range of scenarios (wolf depredation of cattle, cattle weight loss, additional management costs, etc.). It also presents an analysis of long-term effects on ranch profitability that could be capitalized into ranch values. This report updates the 2018 study “Effects of Depredation and Mexican Gray Wolf Presence on Ranch Returns: A Case Study of a Representative Ranch in Arizona”. Since that study was conducted, the Mexican wolf population in the wild has increased, cattle prices and agricultural input prices have changed, and existing compensation programs have also changed. This new study incorporates updated market prices, considers compensation schemes currently available to producers, and combines input from the original survey of affected Arizona ranchers from the 2018 study with responses from a new rancher survey conducted in 2024-2025.